USDA Oilseeds Market Report – August 2025 Summary

The latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report provides an updated outlook for oilseeds, protein meals, and vegetable oils. Key themes include rising Indonesian soybean meal imports, slowing global soymeal export growth, and shifting trade balances driven by weather, biofuel policy, and regional demand.

Indonesia Soymeal Demand Surges

Indonesia’s soybean meal imports are forecast at 6.2 million tons in 2024/25, up 1.1 million from the prior year:contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}. The increase is tied to strong growth in poultry and aquaculture feed demand. Brazil now supplies nearly 80% of Indonesia’s imports, displacing Argentina after drought cut its production in 2022/23. The U.S. maintains dominance in whole soybean shipments (90% share), but only holds 3% of the soybean meal market.

Global Soymeal Exports: Growth Slows but Remains at Record Levels

USDA projects global soybean meal exports at 82 million tons in 2025/26, up 1% year-over-year:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}. While this marks a slowdown from the double-digit expansion seen in 2023/24 and 2024/25, it still represents the third consecutive record high.

• FOB soymeal prices fell from ~$550/ton (late 2023) to near $300/ton by July 2025.
• Lower costs and strong feed demand have lifted imports across the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and Mexico.
• Large soybean crops and expanded crush capacity—fueled by biofuel demand—are driving global availability.

2025/26 Outlook: Production, Trade, and Stocks

The global oilseeds production forecast is slightly lower this month due to reduced U.S. soybean, Ukraine/EU sunflowerseed, and cottonseed output. Key highlights include:

• U.S. soybean exports trimmed by 1.1 MMT on lower production.
• Argentina soybean exports raised 0.8 MMT as it regains competitiveness.
• China rapeseed meal imports increased by 200,000 tons.
• Ukraine sunflower oil exports cut 200,000 tons on lower production.

Ending stocks for global oilseeds are forecast lower, reflecting tighter soybean carryout in the U.S. and Argentina. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected steady at $10.10/bushel.

Country	Commodity	Attribute	Previous	Current	Change	Reason
Argentina	Oilseed, Soybean	Exports	5,000	5,800	+800	Smaller U.S. exportable supplies
China	Meal, Rapeseed	Imports	2,000	2,200	+200	Raised in line with 2024/25 changes
	Oil, Sunflowerseed	Imports	1,200	1,000	-200	Reduced global availability
European Union	Meal, Sunflowerseed	Imports	2,700	2,500	-200	Reduced global availability
India	Meal, Rapeseed	Exports	1,200	1,400	+200	Raised in line with 2024/25 changes
Ukraine	Meal, Sunflowerseed	Exports	4,000	3,800	-200	Lower production outlook
	Oil, Sunflowerseed	Exports	5,375	5,175	-200	Lower production outlook
	Oilseed, Rapeseed	Exports	3,100	2,950	-150	Lower production outlook
United States	Oilseed, Soybean	Exports	47,491	46,402	-1,089	Lower production outlook

2024/25 Updates

For the current marketing year, production is raised on stronger Argentina and Uruguay soybeans. Soymeal exports from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. are higher, while EU sunflowermeal and Malaysian palm kernel meal exports decline. Global soybean oil trade remains steady with higher Argentina and China exports offsetting weaker PNG palm oil.

The U.S. soybean season-average farm price holds at $10.00/bushel.

Export Price Trends

Soybean export prices have diverged:

• U.S. Gulf values declined, pressured by large crop expectations and slow export sales.
• Brazilian and Argentine soybean oil prices firmed on strong overseas demand.
• Sunflower oil strengthened on reduced Ukraine output, while EU rapeseed oil softened as harvest expanded.
• Palm oil remains the world’s discount oil, with modest gains as demand accelerates.

Market Implications

The current market landscape reflects a shift toward abundant soybean meal supplies, which is pressuring feed costs lower worldwide. For U.S. producers, competitive headwinds remain as Brazil strengthens its role in both beans and meal. However, firm global demand in poultry and aquaculture feed should underpin longer-term soymeal use.

On vegetable oils, U.S. soybean oil retains a premium due to robust biofuel demand, keeping crushers incentivized. Meanwhile, sunflower and rapeseed oil supply risks in Europe and Ukraine could sustain volatility in vegetable oil spreads through late 2025. Overall, the oilseed complex remains in a bearish-to-neutral environment, with protein meals trending softer while oils hold relative strength.